|Wednesday, 08 September 2010 15:30|
2010 - the effect of the 'Christian vote'
After the 2007 federal election, researcher John Black, a former Senator, reported that the Christian vote had been very significant in giving power to Kevin Rudd and the Labor Party. During that election campaign we had Kevin writing about 'Faith in Politics' and openly declaring his Christianity.
John Black runs Australian Development Strategies - this includes the group 'Elaborate' - he has analysed the 2010 federal election results and found that the Christian vote was again significant - this time turning votes away from Labor.
Christian journalist, Peter Hallet, who runs the website Australian Christian Voter, says "Elaborate is the name given to both the database and the analytical techniques developed by Australian Development Strategies principals during 35 years of experience in using demographic analysis, profiling and mapping." He notes "Even in the the first paragraphs of the 45 page report, it becomes clear that the votes of Christians played a significant role in the election."
John Black writes "'Where we found more activist Christians, we found more voters swinging against Labor... The regression analysis weeds out the purely descriptive variables and uses only those variables which contribute real explaining power to the model. For example in the current election, the ALP copped an absolute caning in the regression analysis from activist Christian demographics in terms of both the vote and the swing. So the presence of an activist Christian vote in any electorate both described and explained behaviour.'"
Read John Black's Report: 2010 Election Profile and some relevant documents (45 pages, 1.4 MB)
ADS 2007 Election report - click here.